2022 turned out to be a year of energy crisis, supply chain disruptions, interest rate hikes and rising inflation. To-date, we have already seen discussions swinging between strong labour data and continued inflationary risks, versus recessionary risks, rate pauses versus further rate hikes, and the effects of these moves on the global economy.

Against a backdrop of ongoing geopolitical shocks and sustained inflation global volatilities, ASEAN is likely to remain a bright spot amidst intensifying headwinds as the region’s resilience is once more on display.

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10 Post-Pandemic Realities Facing ASEAN

We highlight 10 macro post-pandemic realities: [1] ASEAN manufacturing and exports are contracting, but services are resilient; [2] US may not be in recession yet, but ASEAN exports to US are; [3] China's reopening has not boosted ASEAN exports; [4] China's tourists are returning to ASEAN, more quickly than expected; [5] ASEAN services exports are rebounding; [6] ASEAN's reopening boost is fading, with only weak tailwinds left in hospitality, food and construction; [7] ASEAN real commodity exports are resilient, despite falling commodity prices; [8] manufacturing supply chains are gravitating towards ASEAN; [9] ASEAN headline inflation is falling sharply, but core inflation is sticky; [10] ASEAN central banks are done with tightening.

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Malaysia 2H2023 Market Outlook

Contrary to relatively optimistic expectations at the start of the year, as detailed in 2023 Malaysia Equities Outlook report "A New Hope", dated Dec 14, macro, corporate earnings and political concerns have persisted in 1H23, with long-apparent disconnect between resilient GDP growth (1Q: +5.6% YoY; 2023E: +4.5%) and an underperforming KLCI particularly stark.

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Forget ROI. How's your ROSI?

Tensie Whelan, Clinical Professor of Business and Society, NYU Stern School of Business is the esteemed speaker for this talk. ESG drives better financial performance yet many people still argue the business case. Why? Professor Whelan talks candidly about the challenges in ESG investing and what is preventing most companies from monetising the return on sustainability investment. She provides her unique take on how to implement sustainability reporting and measurement in NUY Stern's proprietary model called Return on Sustainability Investment (ROSI).

Malaysia: Shifting Into Higher Gear

Compared to the relatively downbeat assessment of Malaysia's broad ESG positioning as articulated in our maiden Compendium ("Sustainability: No longer optional", dated April 8), the last 18 months has seen a sharp acceleration in Sustainability initiatives by government, regulators and corporates alike. Crucially, these stepped-up measures, disclosures and targets demonstrate rising cohesion and integration across stakeholders, significantly increasing the chances of successful execution as well as the creation of a positive feedback loop.

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China's Belt & Road: "Small But Beautiful"

China's decade-old Belt & Road ambitions have scaled back to build “small but beautiful” projects, according to the latest NDRC Annual Plan tabled at the National People's Congress. China's reopening will revive investments into ASEAN after 3 years of slumber due to the pandemic and lockdowns.

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